Friday, May 13, 2011

Skorman, Bach in virtual tie, poll shows

Posted By on Fri, May 13, 2011 at 12:03 PM

The latest poll of the Colorado Springs mayoral race shows Richard Skorman and Steve Bach running neck-and-neck in the final days before Tuesday's election.

Luce Research conducted the poll for the Skorman campaign on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday this week of 300 active city voters.

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The poll shows Skorman with 32 percent of the vote and Bach with 34 percent; 13 percent were unsure and 21 percent refused to disclose their vote. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percent.

That's far different than a Magellan Strategies poll conducted Monday and Tuesday that showed Bach leading with 54 percent, Skorman with 41 percent and 5 percent undecided.

Todd Luce with Luce Research says it's uncommon for mail-ballot voters who have already cast their ballots to reveal how they voted. "I have trouble believing they got so many to disclose that confidential information," Luce says of the Magellan poll's low percentage of undecided voters.

He also notes that the poll by Magellan — whose name you may recognize from the ugly push-poll that kicked off the runoff campaign — was an auto-dial poll. Robo-call polling, he says, has been shown to overstate conservative outcomes. He says auto-dial polls omit cell phones, which a California study showed can skew the results toward conservative questions and candidates.

The Luce poll was based on all live calls and included cell phone numbers.

A previous Luce poll of the mayoral race, conducted April 27 and 28, showed Skorman trailing by 8 points.

Other Luce poll results:

• Bach is up 8 percent among those who have already voted.
• Of those who haven't voted, Skorman was favored by 37 percent, and Bach by 38 percent.
• Skorman has an 11 percentage-point edge among active voters who were mailed ballots but say they might or might not vote. These voters are often in the 18 to 29 age range, where Skorman has a commanding lead of 16 percent.

So it would appear that if the turnout is robust, Skorman could pull out a win. If turnout is in the 60 percent range, as in the April 5 primary, Bach will prevail.

Voting ends at 7 p.m. Tuesday. Here's some voting information.

If you mail your ballot, it will need to arrive (not be postmarked, but delivered) before 7 p.m. on Tuesday, May 17. Otherwise, you can drop off your ballot. Locations are open from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m., Thursday, Friday and Monday. On the official election day of Tuesday, May 17, they'll accept ballots from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Locations are: city clerk's office, 30 S. Nevada Ave., #101; Colorado Springs Senior Center, 1514 N. Hancock Ave.; Fire Station No. 8, 3737 Airport Road; Fire Station No. 17, 3750 Tutt Blvd.; Fire Station No. 19, 2490 Research Pkwy.; Fire Station No. 20, 6755 Rangewood Drive; and Gold Hill Police Substation, 955 W. Moreno Ave.

Inactive voters (classified that way if they did not vote in the November 2010 election) can still go to the city clerk's office, reactivate their status and pick up a runoff ballot during regular business hours through Tuesday.

Inactive voters whose name or address changed since they last voted must start the activation process by making necessary changes to their registration at an El Paso County elections office. Find those locations online at car.elpasoco.com/election.

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