Wednesday, October 6, 2010

Bennet overtakes Buck, poll shows

Posted By on Wed, Oct 6, 2010 at 10:34 AM

With polls showing a seesaw between U.S. Senate candidates, one thing is sure. The race is a close one.

Buck - just a smidgen behind.
  • Buck - just a smidgen behind.

The Denver Post reported last weekend that Ken Buck, the Republican, was ahead of Democrat Michael Bennet by 48 percent to 43 percent.

Days after that Denver Post/News9 poll, Bennet's camp today announced the outcome of a new poll that shows the Democrat leading.

Bennet - leading but for how long?
  • Bennet - leading but for how long.

Here's the press release:

According to our just-completed survey, Michael Bennet holds a 3% lead over Ken Buck
among likely voters in Colorado. Overall, 44% of likely voters prefer Michael Bennet
versus 41% for Ken Buck, 2% for Libertarian Maclyn Stringer, 1% for Green candidate
Bob Kinsey, and 13% are undecided.

Among those who say they will definitely vote, Bennet holds a 2% lead over Buck —
45% to 43% — with 10% undecided. And among the pivotal Independent voters, Bennet
leads by a 45% to 34% margin.

Notwithstanding the unprecedented barrage of Republican negative ads against
Michael Bennet — in excess of 2-to-1 versus the Democratic side — the Senator’s
popularity continues to hold up since the August primary (36% positive, 34% negative,
essentially unchanged since mid-August).

By contrast, Ken Buck’s negatives continue to rise (now 31% positive, 41% negative) as
voters become more familiar with his issue stands and extremism. In mid-August,
Buck’s feelings were 28% positive and 24% negative, so his negatives have risen 17%.
The sample in this internal survey was conservative. It includes a 5% Republican
advantage (39% registered Republicans, 34% registered Democrats, 27% registered
unaffiliated) — twice the Republican edge in the statewide active voter file.

The survey was conducted by Harstad Strategic Research among a cross-section of
509 likely voters in Colorado drawn from a voter sample. It was interviewed by
telephone from October 3 to 4, 2010. The overall results are subject to a statistical
margin-of-error of plus-or-minus 4.4%.

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